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The volume impact of the UAW strike at American Axle & Manufacturing continues to expand, decreasing output at several General Motors engine and transmission assembly facilities as well as reducing volumes of purchased assemblies.
Axle Summary
General Motors is currently purchasing front axles (7.25” to 9.25”) and rear axles (8.6” to 11.5”) from American Axle to support most affected truck assembly operations. It is focusing its limited inventory of axles to support production at Arlington, which is expected to remain in production until the middle of next week. GM-Silao (Mexico) is purchasing axles locally from an American Axle plant not participating in the strike action, and thus far appears mostly unaffected by the strike.
Engine and Transmission Summary
To date, engine and transmission volumes have decreased at several General Motors engine facilities. However, production is now expected to be idled at several facilities by Monday, 10 March. Shutdowns are expected to last two weeks and could be extended up to four weeks.
Initial shutdowns are expected to begin tomorrow (7 March) with the idling of the General Motors Toledo, OH transmission facility which assembles the 4L60/4L80 4-speed automatic transmission. Additionally, Romulus Engine, which produces the GEN IV/V engines, and Ypsilanti, MI Transmission, which assembles 4L60/4L80 4-speed automatic transmissions and 6L50/6L80/6L90 6-speed automatic transmissions, are expected to shut down.
By early next week, possibly Monday, Duramax Diesel volumes from Moraine, OH will cease along with GEN IV/V engines from St. Catharines, Ontario.
There are no definitive reports on GMT355-based products at Shreveport, but CSM expects that they could sustain another week before being impacted by the cascading effect of this strike through the supply chain. Inventory for the Shreveport-built compact pickups and SUVs is at a combined 119-day supply. Full-size vans accounted for an 89-day supply at the end of February.
Substantial volume reductions are expected at Flint, MI #2 (South) on the L4/L5/L6, Silao (Mexico) on GEN IV/V V8, and Tonawanda, NY on the Mark VIII V8 line.
Additionally, the closures are affecting purchased transmissions from Allison Transmission. Facilities in Baltimore, MD and Indianapolis, IN supply the heavy-duty LCT-1000 transmission and AHS2 Hybrid. Additionally, if GMT355-based products at Shreveport are affected, this will impact volumes of purchased manual transmissions from the Aisin Nishio (Japan) facility.
Summary
Depending on the duration of the strike, CSM expects that most of the lost volume associated with the GMT900-based products will not be recovered as GM works to reduce bloated inventory levels.
To date, Chrysler output has not been affected and the company expects to maintain operations well into next week before shortages threaten to suspend production.
For questions, please contact Casey Selecman,
Manager, North American Powertrain Forecasts,
at caseyselecman@csmauto.com or +1 248 465 2829
or Eric Fedewa,
Vice President, Global Powertrain Forecasts,
at ericfedewa@csmauto.com or +1 248 465 2802