Pressemeldungen
WESTERN EUROPEAN PASSENGER CAR SALES STUMBLE 2.1% IN OCTOBER
November 9, 2005
Frankfurt, Germany
According to CSM Worldwide, the market leader in automotive forecasting and market intelligence, Western European car sales market had been showing positive signs, slowly gaining momentum from strong demand in 2Q and 3Q 2005, however the poor start to the last quarter has indicated this will not be the case throughout the remainder of the year.
Historically, sales during the final three months of the year have registered as the weakest quarter, targeting 22.5% of total year volumes. Moreover, the growing economic instability coupled with high oil prices have undeniably forced consumers to think twice before purchasing a vehicle in the short term.
Total vehicle sales in October reached 1.11 million units, a decrease of 2.1 % in comparison to the same month of 2004. As a result, ten-month accumulated sales across the region reached 12.35 million units, slightly up 0.2% year-over-year.
Looking forward, the Western European SAAR – seasonally adjusted annualised selling rate – indicates full-year passenger car sales reaching 14.8 million units, a slight increase over last year’s results that were largely inflated by last minute registration rushes in November and December.
Summary
- October sales growth in Germany and Italy was not enough to offset surprisingly weak demand in France, Spain and the continuously sluggish performance of the United Kingdom.
-
Demand in Germany has picked up since April, posting seven consecutive months of growth, as October sales increased 3.5% and year-to-date sales rose 3.3% over last year. The positive momentum is expected to slow down as the upbeat demand spurred by the IAA in Frankfurt weakens and consumers await the outcome of the domestic political power struggle. In addition, OEMs will need to ponder repeating the heavy discount strategy of last year’s final months. The full-year selling rate projects the market towards 3.25 million units, up 3.7% vs. 2004.
- Sales in Spain unexpectedly fell 9.7% in October, negatively contributing towards a growth rate of 1.3% year-over-year. The market has been strong since 2Q 2003, and positive demand continues to suggest another record year of sales despite the foreseeable slow down. Full-year sales target 1.53 million units, up 1.6% vs. 2004. In order to prevent a significant slow down next year, the government has announced it will extend its PREVER incentive scheme until the end of 2006.
- Present-year demand in France had posted three consecutive quarters of growth, however October sales dropped 5.8% as year-to-date sales continue to rise 3.6% over last year. Looking forward, next month will prove to be a difficult period in comparison to last November’s 18% registered growth over 2003. The full-year selling rate projects the market towards 2.1 million units, up 4.0% vs. 2004.
- The car market in Italy has reported a turnaround in demand following a disastrous start to the year. Demand was falling 9.4% after the first five months, however year-to-date sales are decreasing 1.7% and a full-year selling rate suggests that the market will report sales of 2.35 million units, nevertheless confirming a slight negative full year outlook, down 1.8%.
- Lastly, in the United Kingdom, car sales continue to experience a complete opposite cyclical trend in comparison to the region’s larger markets. Sales have clearly slowed down since 2Q 2004, posting negative growth rates over eleven consecutive months following four years of consecutive growth. Car sales slumped 10.8% in October, following a disappointing September that commenced the upgrade of new registration plates. The full year selling rate projects the market towards 2.43 million units, down 5.6% vs. 2004.
CSM Worldwide (www.csmauto.com) supports more than 350 of the world's top automakers, suppliers and financial organizations with market intelligence and forecasting services. With corporate offices in metro Detroit, CSM Worldwide covers the global automotive environment from London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Paris, Sao Paulo, Singapore, Shanghai, Bangalore, and Budapest.
Automobilprognosen